Nothing Will Change; the Subsidies Will Live

Kudos to Amy Howe of ScotusBlog for a well written 3/4/15 piece on the oral arguments presented to the Supreme Court on the merits of continuing the "state-based" Obamacare subsidy (King v. Burwell).

If you don't have the time or the interest in reading the article, but you are interested in knowing if the subsidies will be killed off and spawn an insurance "death spiral," then let me sum it up as per Amy's interpretation of the questions and answers between counsels and judges. The judges tipped their hands by the questions they asked and the concerns that they raised. They are very much behind keeping things exactly the way they are now. As Amy puts it:
"Justices Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor, Stephen Breyer, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg all seemed like solid votes for the federal government, defending the subsidies, while the challengers could clearly count on the votes of Justices Antonin Scalia and Samuel Alito."
I wasn't a math major, but I do know four is a higher number than two.  So when this comes to vote, the challengers lose and the subsidies continue. As an investor who has holdings in the health care industry, this is good news and hopefully my holdings will continue to flourish. Obamacare gave them a nice boost!  But as a health care consumer, I am saddened by this clumsy shift to socialized medicine.  If you want a glimpse of the future, study the experience of other countries more advanced in the evolution from private to public health insurance.  Look closely at the quality of care and type of service they receive in their countries.  I don't think you'll like what you see.

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